Iran-Israel war shifts global balances, tests China's power

Israel launched an attack on Iran out of the blue.

If we rewind our memories a bit, the United States once invaded Iraq under the pretext that then-Iraqi President Saddam Hussein possessed chemical weapons, leading to the deaths of nearly a million people and displacing 4 million-5 million Iraqis. To this day, Iraq has still not fully recovered as a functioning state.

On the other hand, al-Qaida was an organization created by the U.S. to fight against Russia on the Afghan front. Later, the U.S. invaded Afghanistan to defeat both the Taliban and al-Qaida. After 20 years of occupation, the U.S. fled overnight, handing the country over to the Taliban.

Similarly, under the claim that some elements of al-Qaida were sheltering in Yemen, the U.S. indiscriminately bombed Yemen, plunging its already impoverished and struggling population into even greater misery. Thus, following the 9/11 attacks, there is significant debate within the U.S. over whether certain forces inside the country orchestrated or exploited these events. In this way, the U.S. ended up invading three nations.

Islamic world after world wars

It is well known that there is tension between Iran and the U.S., and the root cause is quite clear. There is an established global order, and Iran is not part of it.

After World War I and II, a particular order was established in the Islamic world, giving rise to three distinct political tones:

• The Middle Eastern and Arab countries assumed that their governments were not capable of true statehood. In a way, they were like gas stations, with no chance of resisting Western hegemony. Therefore, they would submit to the West and share their resources with them, ensuring their security in exchange.
• Iran’s stance was different. It knew if it were submitted to the Western system, it would be exploited and destroyed as a people. It stood against the Western-imposed order, both as a state and a nation, and it remained outside this system. Thus, the Islamic Republic of Iran emerged as a state that refused to surrender to American hegemony and strived to maintain its independence.
• Türkiye’s approach was unique: Unlike the Gulf states, it did not fully submit to the West, nor did it outright oppose the Western system, as Iran did. While remaining part of the established global order (such as through NATO), Türkiye has worked with the West while preserving its independent identity. In recent years, Türkiye’s independent stance in its relations with the West has become even more pronounced. I have recently coined a new term for this: Within NATO, Türkiye pursues an independent variable policy. European states, in contrast, are dependent variables, while Türkiye is the independent variable.

Israel’s atrocities, Gaza war

As is known, Israel has been committing massacres for about a year and a half. Now, across the West, the East and universities worldwide, intellectuals and those aware of genocide are speaking out. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has accused Israel of committing genocide. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Cabinet should be arrested by European and ICC member states for these crimes.

Yet, since the beginning of the Gaza war, whenever Israel has faced global pressure, it has diverted attention through external attacks. For example, after bombing Al-Shifa Hospital, it attacked Lebanon, assassinating then-Secretary-General of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah. In another crisis, it assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, the then-political leader of Hamas, in Iran. In yet another moment of pressure, it launched a limited strike on Iran.

However, incidents like the Madleen yacht attack, the bombing of hospitals, churches, and international aid personnel, the killing of journalists, the execution of children with headshots, the murder of pregnant women and the deliberate destruction of infrastructure to starve people have exposed Israel’s brutality to the world. Especially after the arrest of activists on the Madleen yacht, Gaza became an unsustainable situation for Israel.

Netanyahu raised his hand and attacked Iran, presuming that the U.S. had no choice but to follow him. Indeed, Netanyahu has been dictating not only Israel’s domestic politics but also the war and the policies of Western nations, effectively treating Western leaders as his subordinates.

What Iran war reveals

This war has shown that there are no truly independent states left in the world, except perhaps some Scandinavian countries, Spain and Ireland. The U.S., U.K., France, Germany and many others have effectively become subservient to Zionism.

Now, two key questions arise. First, will the U.S. join the war? Iran’s recent military performance and missile capabilities have demonstrated that the U.S. cannot simply invade Iran at will. Israel alone does not have the power to do so either. The U.S. may act more cautiously, considering its regional bases. Second, is China a true global power? For nearly a decade, the U.S. and China have been on a collision course. The Iran war will test whether China can assert itself as a global power. If China backs Iran, directly or indirectly, prolonging the war or ensuring Iran’s survival until a peace deal or at least a long-lasting cease-fire is reached, it will prove China’s global influence.

However, if China fails to demonstrate this power, the world will see that China is as weak as Iran in front of U.S. dominance.

We already know about Russia’s friendly stance toward Israel – Moscow has allowed Israel to freely strike Iranian and Hezbollah targets in Syria. Thus, the big question remains: Is China a global power or merely an economic one? The Iran-Israel war will reveal the answer.